{"id":5750,"date":"2020-04-25T18:43:26","date_gmt":"2020-04-25T23:43:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/steve.cooleysekula.net\/blog\/?p=5750"},"modified":"2020-04-26T13:31:04","modified_gmt":"2020-04-26T18:31:04","slug":"the-virus-strikes-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/steve.cooleysekula.net\/blog\/2020\/04\/25\/the-virus-strikes-back\/","title":{"rendered":"The Virus Strikes Back"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(updated 4\/26\/2020 with demographic and testing data)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe it’s because Texas, as a state, sent signals that it was “okay” to behave like we used to. Maybe it’s because the President lied to the nation over, and over, and over again about the reality of COVID-19. Maybe it’s because people have become complacent. Maybe it’s because testing is improving in our county. Maybe it’s because that kid who helped Jodi with her groceries today, who decried shutting down What-a-Burger just to save human lives, has been going out for fast food with his friend more than he let on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Any way you split it, Collin County, TX is losing ground to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. <\/em><\/strong>We are home to a population of 1 million people. As of April 13, the county had only performed 3464 tests of people for SARS-CoV-2. As of today, we have 639 known cases of COVID-19. The number of cases reported each day is climbing again, doubling about every 22 days; that’s a decrease in the doubling rate from our recent best, which was 35 days (over one month). Our worst doubling rate was before shelter-in-place restrictions were put in place, with a case doubling rate of every 2 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Texas public health data says that new cases of COVID-19 are on the rise, doubling at a rate not seen in about a week, reversing recent positive trends. Something has changed, and not for the common good. Rolling average of new cases per day, over 7 days. is in pink; new cases each day is in dashed purple. Key events in Texas health policy are indicated with arrows. It’s honestly too soon to know how the re-opening of the state is actually affecting the case load, but the coincidences are stunning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Update: <\/strong>if scientists were part of our county’s process of planning for the economic reopening<\/a>, they would be able to inject data from other places that have relaxed social distancing and re-opened. We have much to learn from cities and regions that have already tried this experiment… and it hasn’t gone well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Japanese prefecture of Hokkaido, an island of 5.3M people, had done well early w COVID response, and it relaxed social distancing, restarted businesses Mar 18. A resurgence in cases forced him to restart state of emergency April 14. https:\/\/t.co\/lisJxajWxJ<\/a><\/p>— Tom Inglesby, MD (@T_Inglesby) April 26, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote>