{"id":5760,"date":"2020-04-30T18:13:26","date_gmt":"2020-04-30T23:13:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/steve.cooleysekula.net\/blog\/?p=5760"},"modified":"2020-04-30T18:25:50","modified_gmt":"2020-04-30T23:25:50","slug":"racing-toward-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/steve.cooleysekula.net\/blog\/2020\/04\/30\/racing-toward-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Racing toward 25%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Friday (tomorrow) is the day that Texas’s Governor allows all businesses to reopen, but only if they cap their in-house customers at 25% of capacity for their facility. So where is my county, Collin County, right now? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipating this “momentous” day of continuing to re-open businesses in Texas, Collin County is stalled in its fight against the spread of SARS-CoV-2. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Data for Collin County, TX. (PINK SOLID) The number of new cases per day, averaged over the previous 7 days. (PURPLE DASHED) The number of new cases reported on a given day. (BLUE ARROWS) Key events in Texas regarding policy and COVID-19. (BLACK NUMBERS) The doubling rate of new cases, computed by fitting an exponential growth function to the prior 7 days of data. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Early on in the pandemic, Collin County achieved a 2-day doubling time for new cases. This is nothing to be proud of; the shorter the doubling rate, the faster the deadly disease spreads. Those early numbers and their rise is due to two effects: the spread of the virus, and the ramp-up of disease testing capability (when you look, you always find the cases that were already there<\/em> in plain sight<\/em>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We peaked in new reported COVID-19 cases per day about 35 days after the first reported case in Collin County. It was around that time that the shelter-in-place orders put into effect between days 19-26 after first-reported-infection kicked in. We came down fast. Rather than doubling every 9 days (our rate when we hit the peak number of new cases per day) we fell to a low of about 10 new cases per day and a doubling rate of 35 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was the best we did. Coincidence or not, about 15 days after the CDC recommended everyone wear a face covering (note that they recommended a covering<\/em>, independent of its ability to stop infection), we bounced. New infections each day began to climb again, and our new-case doubling rate worsened to every 20 days. We’ve wobbled there now for days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Governor allowed all businesses to reopen for delivery or pickup about 6 days ago. Tomorrow, Texas businesses can accept people into their establishment so long as not more than 25% of capacity is utilized and social distancing is observed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But in Collin County, TX, we are not seeing declining infection rates. We are hovering. And opening up more, now, will only lead to more spread of the virus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The plot is made using data from the Texas Department of Health<\/a>. Collin County reported cases are updated daily by about noon, US Central Time. The actual figure is made using Python, specifically:<\/p>\n\n\n\n